Tiered pricing as “emerging market” equals “growth market”

Pharma companies are becoming more adept at selling drugs for different prices in different countries. “Since 2001 the situation has evolved massively. When we first started, investors didn’t think emerging markets were important. Now there’s an enormous amount of thinking and experimentation by companies, largely as a result of emerging markets being seen as growth …

Oil price volatile — two scenarios foreseen

Having fallen earlier this week, oil prices have risen again, to around £112/barrel. The reason — US commercial crude stocks fell by 7.3million barrels, ten times the forecast amount. Inventories are now at their lowest levels since January. Prices rose after Libyan output dropped earlier this year. Full production (1.6m barrels/day) is currently forecast to …

Shale gas found in Lancashire

Mark Miller, chief executive of Cuadrilla, says that enough shale gas has been found beneath Blackpool and Preston to supply all Britain’s gas need for “more than 56 years”. He declined to say how much of that would be recoverable. In the US, ten percent has proved to be a typical recovery rate, meaning that …

German Bundeswehr report on peak oil

In November 2010 the German Bundeswehr (‘Federal Defence Force’) was embarrassed to find that a study by its Future Analysis department had leaked to the Internet. Nearly a year on and the report has been published in full, translated into English. With commendable German clarity and efficiency it reports as follows (direct quotations except where [square-bracketed], …

Looking for new paradigms

Gavyn Davies, ex-head of global economics at Goldman Sachs, ex-chairman of the BBC, said something interesting in the FT yesterday. He wrote, “Michael Feroli at JP Morgan suggests a useful way of looking at this. Long term bond yields are equal to the sum of short rate expectations, plus a risk premium which represents the …

Diverging metals prices

The price of gold is being forecast to pass $2,000 an ounce next year. And yet miners/manufacturers of industrial metals, such as iron and copper, are finding customers asking for shipments to be delayed. This is a “marked shift in industry sentiment from only six weeks ago, when most … groups painted a bullish outlook for commodities …

Difficult to invest way out of gloom

Nick Clegg, Deputy Prime Minister, is expected to tell his party conference today that Britain can invest its way out of the downturn. However, it is proving difficult to identify projects that can be started quickly, and the government is hampered by its need to cut spending on existing activities. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/cff32134-e3b7-11e0-bd3d-00144feabdc0.html At the same time …